The Distributional Alignment Game framework provides a powerful variational perspective on Answer-Level Fine-Tuning (ALFT). However, standard algorithms for these games rely on estimating logarithmic rewards from small batches, introducing a systematic bias due to Jensen's inequality that can destabilize training. In this paper, we systematically resolve this structural estimation bias. First, we generalize the alignment game to arbitrary Bregman divergences, showing that for a family of geometries inducing polynomial rewards, we can construct provably exact and unbiased estimators using U-statistics. Second, for the canonical KL divergence game where an exact solution is impossible, we derive a globally robust minimax polynomial estimator that is provably optimal, achieving the fundamental statistical error limit of $Θ(1/K^2)$, which we establish via the Ditzian-Totik theorem. Finally, we synthesize these two approaches to propose a novel Variance-Optimal Augmented Polynomial Optimization Program (AQP) Estimator, proving that by systematically reducing variance, our method achieves not only optimal bias but also provably accelerated game convergence, leading to more efficient and stable training with zero online computational overhead.

The design and analysis of randomized experiments is fundamental to many areas, from the physical and social sciences to industrial settings. Regression adjustment is a popular technique to reduce the variance of estimates obtained from experiments, by utilizing information contained in auxiliary covariates. While there is a large literature within the statistics community studying various approaches to regression adjustment and their asymptotic properties, little focus has been given to approaches in the finite population setting with non-asymptotic accuracy bounds. Further, prior work typically assumes that an entire population is exposed to an experiment, whereas practitioners often seek to minimize the number of subjects exposed to an experiment, for ethical and pragmatic reasons. In this work, we study the problems of estimating the sample mean, individual treatment effects, and average treatment effect with regression adjustment. We propose approaches that use techniques from randomized numerical linear algebra to sample a subset of the population on which to perform an experiment. We give non-asymptotic accuracy bounds for our methods and demonstrate that they compare favorably with prior approaches.

Training models with discrete latent variables is challenging due to the high variance of unbiased gradient estimators. While low-variance reparameterization gradients of a continuous relaxation can provide an effective solution, a continuous relaxation is not always available or tractable. Dong et al. (2020) and Yin et al. (2020) introduced a performant estimator that does not rely on continuous relaxations; however, it is limited to binary random variables. We introduce a novel derivation of their estimator based on importance sampling and statistical couplings, which we extend to the categorical setting. Motivated by the construction of a stick-breaking coupling, we introduce gradient estimators based on reparameterizing categorical variables as sequences of binary variables and Rao-Blackwellization. In systematic experiments, we show that our proposed categorical gradient estimators provide state-of-the-art performance, whereas even with additional Rao-Blackwellization, previous estimators (Yin et al., 2019) underperform a simpler REINFORCE with a leave-one-out-baseline estimator (Kool et al., 2019).

In this section, we give a formal functional definition of the decision-making policies introduced in Section 3. During each task, the agent sequentially observes samples xi [ 1,1] representing realizations of stochastic observations of the current innovation value. A map τ: [ 1,1]N N is a duration (of a decision task) if for all x [ 1,1]N, its value d= τ(x) Nat xdepends only on the first dcomponents x1,x2,...,xd of x = (x1,x2,...); mathematically speaking, if X is a discrete stochastic process (i.e., a random sequence), then τ(X) is a stopping time with respect to the filtration generated by X. This definition reflects the fact that the components x1,x2,... of the sequence x = (x1,x2,...) are generated sequentially, and the decision to stop testing an innovation depends only on what occurred so far. A concrete example of a duration function is the one, mentioned in the introduction and formalized in (4), that keeps drawing samples until the empirical average of the observed values xi surpasses/falls below a certain threshold, or a maximum number of samples have been drawn.

Calculation of T Given data D, disaggregate Y into M equal-size bins, and the m-th bin is denoted as Bm. Let m = |Bm| denote the number of samples in Bm. For distribution p 2 (V A Y) conditioned on y in Bm, pV,A|ym, pV|ym and pA|ym are denoted as the joint distribution of (V,A), marginal distribution of V and A, respectively. As detailed in Section 5.1 of [33] and Algorithm 4 of [32], Um could be calculated through U-statistic. Specifically, in [33], they consider designing kernel as ij(av)= I(Ai = a,Vi = v) I(Ai = a)I(Vi = v), for i and j-th sample in Dt.

Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) have become very popular techniques to perform inference and learning in latent variable models as they allow us to leverage the rich representational power of neural networks to obtain flexible approximations of the posterior of latent variables as well as tight evidence lower bounds (ELBO). Combined with stochastic variational inference, this provides a methodology scaling to large datasets. However, for this methodology to be practically efficient, it is necessary to obtain low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients with respect to the parameters of interest. While the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been previously suggested to achieve this [23, 26], the proposed methods require specifying reverse kernels which have a large impact on performance. Additionally, the resulting unbiased estimator of the ELBO for most MCMC kernels is typically not amenable to the reparameterization trick. We show here how to optimally select reverse kernels in this setting and, by building upon Hamiltonian Importance Sampling (HIS) [17], we obtain a scheme that provides low-variance unbiased estimators of the ELBO and its gradients using the reparameterization trick. This allows us to develop a Hamiltonian Variational Auto-Encoder (HVAE). This method can be re-interpreted as a target-informed normalizing flow [20] which, within our context, only requires a few evaluations of the gradient of the sampled likelihood and trivial Jacobian calculations at each iteration.